All arguments lead to Rahul Gandhi!!

In New India one name is the all-time favourite of critics and supporters, his tweets set the narrative for the Govt of India, his statements rule the media debates, his presence or absence can make the entire cabinet go witch hunting for him.... he's none other than the "Non serious" politician of India one and only one the Rahul Gandhi.

Of late there have been tensions at the Indo-China border, the Galwan Valley face-off has lead to Martyrdom of 20 bravehearts. Every one in the country is angry and in a revengeful mood.

Its noteworthy that it was Rahul Gandhi who alerted the country and forced the Govt to make official statement of the Galwan Valley incursions and massacre.

Now that all the PR stunts and emotional pep talks have not fetched Modi Govt the expected milage, they went back to their usual tried and tested trick of attacking the Gandhis.

Today BJP president Mr J P Nadda attacked Rahul Gandhi saying being the Parliamentary Standing Committee head of the opposition, Rahul Gandhi missed 11 out of 12 meetings, but he continues to ask questions and demoralises the Army. Really??

Rahul Gandhi does not attend Standing Committee meeting....doesn't take away his right to question the govt!

Lets understand what is Rahul Gandhi asking which is making the Govt edgy so much that they 'investigate' his attendance records.


1. If Rahul Gandhi missed the Parliamentary Standing Committee meetings, does that give the Chinese invitation to Intrude into our LAC and martyr 20 bravehearts?

2. Inspite of missing the meetings, Rahul Gandhi was the first one break the unfortunate event of Galwan Valley.

3. Modi Govt took 2 days to even tell the Nation that India lost its 20 brave hearts.

4. Modi ji himself said there was no incursion...we will believe him but he has to answer why and how did Indian Army lose 20 soldiers?

5. He is asking where did this happen in our LAC limits or theirs?

But he questions the Valour of our Army is the allegation of the Govt...does he?

1. No he never questioned the valour of the Army

2. He questions the Govt for failing our bravehearts

3. He questions the lies of PM Modi for denying incursions... remember Modi ji said "na koi ghusa hai, na hi koi ghusa hua hai" and the Chinese media lapped his statement as a clean chit.

4. He questions the discrepancies of the three statements made by Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, Prime Minister Modi and External Affairs minister Jaishankar.

5. He is asking who gave the orders of Marching Ahead of Unarmed Soldiers and why?

6. He is asking why wasn't there any back up?

7. He is asking when 20 bravehearts were being Martyred brutally, why weren't orders of coverfire issued?

8. He is asking why weren't they rescued?

9. Were our soldiers captured by the Chinese?

10. If yes then how many are captive?

11. If capturing was the motive, they should have captured the Commanding Officer Col Santosh Babu for better bargaining edge right? Why was he Martyred?

12. He's asking if Commanding Officer Col Santosh Babu has been Martyred...does that mean his entire company has been wiped out?

13. If his entire company has been wiped out how many soldiers were there in his company?

14. If his entire company was not wiped out, how many of them are alive, how many are seriously injured and how many are either captive or missing in action?

15. What is the reason behind 16 out of 20 Martyrs were from Bihar Regiment?
Coincidence or Conspiracy?

16. He's asking the locals including their own BJP leaders are saying there's incursion, then why is Govt not telling us the truth of it?

17. He's asking if nothing happened then why is it that America is offering to send its Army?

18. If nothing happened then why did Rajnath Singh visit Russia?

19. He's asking why isn't any one even daring to name China?

20. If nothing happened why did PM Modi visit Leh Ladakh and address the Army in Nimu 255 Km away from Galwan Valley, why not in Galwan Valley itself?

Govt should Stop diverting the attention away from your failures and tell the country how bad is the Situation at our borders.

Leadership Crisis of India

For Narendra Modi BJP is above India:

While the world was busy preparing itself for the Covid 19 Pandemic, Modi ji had other agendas on his list:

1. Sounding the Poll Bugle for Bihar Elections:

• Modi along with other prominent BJP leaders kick started the Bihar Assembly Election Campaign by relishing “Litti Chokha”at Hunar Haat of India Gate lawns
• Modi ji’s ‘Pradhan Mantri Ke Mann Ki Baat, Saptarishi Ke Saath’, on 31 May. Under this, ‘saptarishis’ — the seven-member committees of every booth in Bihar followed by distribution of his letter to people.
• Announcement of Virtual Rally by Amit Shah on the 9th June, the Home Minister and Modi’s General, who went missing during the lockdown period suddenly is on Pole position for Bihar Elections.

2. Forming BJP Govt in Madhya Pradesh:

• 23 MLAs of the Democratically Elected Congress Govt under Kamalnath as CM were ‘Air-lifted’ by BJP to destabilise the State Govt.
• Madhya Pradesh Governor Ordered Floor Test of Kamalnath Govt, but 16 MLAs resigned one day before and the resignations were accepted by the Speaker…Kamalnath tendered his Resignation saying "All that has happened in Madhya Pradesh in the last two weeks is a new chapter in the weakening of democratic principles.”
• Shivraj Singh Chouhan was sworn in as Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister on 23rd March 2020 night in a simple ceremony at Raj Bhawan in view of the coronavirus pandemic. He wins the Confidence Motion.

3. Announcement of Total Lockdown:

• On 24 March 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered a nationwide lockdown for 21 days, limiting movement of the entire 1.3 billion population of India as a preventive measure against the COVID-19 pandemic
• Phase 1: 25 March 2020 – 14 April 2020 (21 days)
• Phase 2: 15 April 2020 – 3 May 2020 (19 days)
• Phase 3: 4 May 2020 – 17 May 2020 (14 days)
• Phase 4: 18 May 2020 – 31 May 2020 (14 days)
• Phase 5 (only for containment zones): 1 June 2020 – ongoing (5 days); scheduled to end on 30 June         2020
•  Lockdown was intended to contain the spread of coronavirus outbreak in India by imposing Ban on people from stepping out of their homes
• All services and shops closed except pharmacies, hospitals, banks, grocery shops and other essential services
• Closure of commercial and private establishments (only work-from-home allowed)
• Suspension of all educational, training, research institutions
• Closure of all places of worship
• Suspension of all non-essential public and private transport
• Prohibition of all social, political, sports, entertainment, academic, cultural, religious activities
• A four hour notice was given to 1.3 billion people before announcing a complete lockdown, as a result millions were stranded in different parts of the country as the public transport came to a sudden halt.


4. Announcement of PMGKY (PM Garib Kalan Yojna):

• Finance Minister announced 1.7 lakh crore relief package under PMGKY for the poor in view of lockdown.
• Counted Union budget spending of Farmers and pensioners as part of Covid Package.
• DA hike to the tune of 38,000 crores, of govt employees, pensioners put on hold till July 2021

5. Formation of PM Cares Fund to fight Covid19:

• On 28th March 2020, under his own Chairmanship Modi formed PM Cares Fund, a Private Trust with Amit Shah HM, Nirmala Sitharaman FM, Rajnath Singh DM as its members.
• He kept it away from RTI, Audit by CAG and even IT scanners. Even today PM is not willing to divulge any details of the funds received or spent.
• CSR funds to mandatory deductions of employees and PSUs have been carefully diverted into PM Cares from PMNRF.

6. Diya Jalao Ritual:

• On 5 April, PM Modi called for solidarity with the health workers, police, and all those fighting the disease by switching off the electric lights at home for 9 minutes from 9:00 p.m. to 9:09 p.m. and observe lighting diya, candle; and flashing torchlight and mobile flashlight.
• Focus was on keeping the Publicity Graph of Modi ji high, because the Frontline workers were neither equipped or empowered.
• Modi Govt continued to deny community transfer and sang praises of Modi ji’s success in containing the Pandemic.

7. Delay in announcing Covid Package:

• Modi was smart enough to urge the Employers not to sack the employees or deduct the pays, he also asked the landlords not to ask rents during the lockdown. But did a complete U turn after he failed to address the aggravated Economic crisis.
• His much hyped Package 2020 of 20 lakhs was telecasted in 6 episodes, which was more of a Union Budget speech and loan mela…end of the day the total package isn’t more than 1.5% of the GDP.
• In spite of continuous requests and suggestions to the Govt for immediate direct cash transfers to poor and Financial stimulus to MSMEs, govt is not willing to budge.

8. Failed Migrant Workers and unleashed a major Humanitarian Crisis:

• A nationwide lockdown and sudden suspension of all transport has left millions of migrant workers in limbo. Many of them are in a dire situation and have been driven close to starvation. Only few states have extended relief measures to stranded Migrants.
• Even if migrant workers manage to return to their villages amid the coronavirus pandemic, they are forced to undergo a mandatory 14-day quarantine.
• The World Bank has called on the Indian government to include all migrant workers in public services, including healthcare and cash transfer programs.

9. Inadequate coordination between the Centre and states:

• The primary challenge in implementing the precautionary measures of "stay at home", maintaining physical distance, and frequent handwashing in the country was that over 4 million people live in homelessness in urban areas, and 75 million people live in informal settlements without access to essential services.
• Lack of universalisation of public distribution system left people hungry, lack of identity documents excluded workers from accessing state benefits during the lockdown.
• Inadequate coordination between the Centre and states was one of the reasons which led to poor implementation of relief measures, funding concerns and delayed response mechanisms for marginalised groups during the lockdown.

Migrant Workers - Apathy Exposed

•  India’s claim to fame is its bumper Agriculture Produce and its robust Human Resources, both skilled and unskilled.
• With a Population of 135 crore people, India’s Labour Force is estimated to be 52 crore people or 38% of the total population.
• Indians across the Globe are 5.24 Crore or 0.4% of the total population.

Migrant Labour:

• Inter State : 8 Crore
• Intra State : 13.9 Crore
• Intra District: 30.1 Crore

80% of them work in the Informal or unorganised sectors.

An estimate says there are 1.76 crore small shops, even if we take an average of 3 people working for every shop, its 5.28 crore.

Sector wise:

• Agriculture : 44%
• Industrial :    25%
• Service:        31%

Covid19 Migrant labour crisis

Covid 19 was first identified in November 2019, and GoI was kind enough to airlift People of Indian Origin from Wuhan.
GoI did not stop there it also showed its 56” chest to airlift Israelis, by sending Air India’s aircrafts.

On the 30th Jan 2020 the first positive Covid case was identified in India, GoI did not take it very seriously and continued with Delhi Election and Namaste Trump with huge public gatherings going unchecked.

On the 19th March 2020, 8 PM Modi appeared on the TV screens and announced Janata Curfew and Thaali Bajao program for 22nd March, kind enough to give almost 4 days notice for us to get ready with our utensils and bells.

23rd March was marked for CM Kamalnath’s Resignation and formation of BJP Govt in Madhya Pradesh.
24th March Sivraj Singh Chauhan was sworn in as the 17th Chief Minister of MP.

24th once again 8 PM Modi appeared on the TV screens and announced a complete lockdown for 21 days with a 4hrs notice.
He ordered every one to stay where ever they were by locking themselves in their houses, but he didn’t tell what should homeless do!

Migrants were caught unaware with no work ahead for weeks to come. Employers were quick enough to chase them away…



Largest Exodus after Independence began

Its human psychology that when ever one is in distress, first thing comes to mind is Home…!

All the means of public transport were ordered to stop with immediate effect, till further orders.

Millions of stranded migrants with no work and income decided to walk back from major cities to their respective villages.

On 27th March, Govt was caught unaware with this sudden sudden surprise, it sprang to action and ordered sealing of District and State Borders.

On 14th April people were hopeful of returning home as the Railways sold 94 lakh tickets, but PM Modi extended the Lockdown for another 19 days and was careful enough in not uttering a single word about the Migrants.

But Migrants did not stop their walk back to their Homes…
The sick, old, physically challenged, pregnant women, mothers of new born babies, little kids…they all are still walking braving hunger, sun, and even death.

Over 170 deaths have been reported so far
Due to Starvation/Dehydration : 26+
Due to Train accident: 16
Due to Road accidents: 55+

One woman gave birth on her way…heartbreaking to watch the visuals of tired and sleepy kids being dragged by the helpless parents.

Influential people and Student’s

Many influential people and children of well to do families were also caught in different places for different reasons. But the thousands of students in Kota Rajasthan became the Achilles heel for the Govt.
Students started trending “Send us Home”, while parents used every possible source to influence the Govt.

On 17th April Uttar Pradesh Govt sent 250 buses to ferry 7500 students from Kota.
On 21st April Madhya Pradesh Govt sent 150 buses to Kota from Gwalior.
While the West Bengal Govt was advised to avoid 3 halts’ travel adventure.

Bihar Govt was very angry on the other States’s for their initiatives to ferry the students…but the CM did nothing.

On 30th April Bihar Govt said they don’t have buses to ferry the students from Kota.

Unrest in Migrant Workers

There was pressure building up on the Govt from Migrant workers.
On 14th April thousands of Migrants came out to Bandra Station in Mumbai, which the BJP called a conspiracy by the ruling Maha Agadi Govt and the lapdog media found Masjid connection to it.

But on the same day in Surat thousands of Textile Industry Migrant labourers from Odisha were also protesting….was Vijay Rupani’s Govt conspiring? Unfortunately lapdog media could not spot skull caps or Masjid in Surat.

Similar protests were seen in other cities also. But in his 5 addresses to the Nation PM Modi did not have any plan to contain the Migrants where ever they are stranded.

On 29th April GoI decided to allow Migrants to go back to their respective villages but only by Bus…the queues were over a mile long.

On 1st May GoI silently issued a press note extending the lockdown further by another fortnight or 14 days.

GoI Proposed to ferry the Migrant workers to their respective states subject to both the State Govts are willing and request Central Govt for Shramik Special Train.

On 2nd May, Indian Railways in its circular issued the guidelines for the migrant labour to be ferried back to their respective villages. Sending State Govt must do screening and registration of the eligible people and also collect ticket fare from them to hand over consolidated money to Railways.

On 3rd May PM Modi tried to use his old trick of bringing in the Olive Green sentiment by flower shower by Indian Airforce…which actually didn’t work this time on the contrary people didn’t react even to the unfortunate martyrdom of our brave soldiers in the militant attack.

On 4th May Smt.Sonia Gandhi hurled a political Salvo by offering to pay the travel expenses of the Migrant Workers.

BJP was caught on the back foot…lame excuses, lies and even abuses for Mrs Sonia Gandhi started pouring out from all quarters of BJP. The mention of the word Ticket itself says there’s exchange of money…foolish arguments from foolish spokes persons of BJP.

On 4th May by evening BJP finally came out with the damage control measure of bearing 85% burden and 15% to be borne by the State Govts, because the Shramik Special Trains are arranged on request of the State Govts.

Constitution of India in its directive has very clearly mentioned in Entry 81 of Schedule 7, that Inter State Migration and Inter State Quarantine are Central Govt’s Responsibility.

Why are the States forced to shoulder 15% burden? States are not taking any kind of assistance from the Central Govt for Intra State Migrants.

On 3rd May PCC of Karnataka D K Shiva Kumar gave a cheque of ₹1 Crore to the Chief Minister    B S Yediyurappa…but on the 6th May Karnataka CM stopped the special train to Haryana.
If we have to go back to the directive of Indian Railways, special train is arranged only and only if both the State CMs request after mutually agreeing to send and receive Migrants.

Irony of the Migrant Saga

All these weeks when the Covid cases were low, migrants were not having any work or source of income, Govt did not allow them to return home.

When the Covid cases have crossed 90,000, a Staggered Exit of Lockdown is being implemented and there’s hope for the migrants to get work…senseless Govt is planning to ferry them to their respective villages.

Neither GoI nor the State Govts have promised any employment plan for the returning Migrants.

Our Nation Builders called the Migrant Workers, who have endured so much in these 55 - 60 days, with no one to help them, will not return to the Heartless Cities…at least not soon.

The foolishness of GoI has given birth to Humanitarian Crisis, which will translate into Labour Crisis soon.

Almost 40% population is walking back Home, 35% population has either lost the jobs or awaiting termination, is figuring out how to pay their EMIs, rents, bills etc,….10% rich are waiting to claim their share of the 20 lakh crore package.

Wah re Suit Boot Ki Sarkar!!

Lives or Livelihoods?

Global leaders are debating what is important…Saving Lives or Saving Livelihoods?

To save Lives Lockdown must continue: says the Dharma or Holistic well-being.
To save Livelihoods Lockdown must be lifted:says the Artha or Materialistic prosperity.

Not an easy choice to make, because both supplement and complement one another as we know there’s nothing called a free lunch in this world.


Chanakya in his Arthashastra says, a King or the Ruler does not have the luxury to choose between Dharma and Artha, which means both Men and Material are equally important for a happy society. The Ruler has a Moral responsibility to create wealth for the country and ensure happiness of his people.

In any unforeseen conditions be it divine or man made, if the people of a country face hardships due to lack of food or money, Society is bound to get destroyed.
Hence the Ruler must take every necessary measures to avoid wide spread deprivation due to inadequate access to food or money…and prevent the society from getting destroyed at any cost.

That is why every renowned Economist is requesting the present Govt, to ensure distribution of food grains to needy and demonetise the people through direct cash transfers…irrespective the Ration cards or other clauses, because 10 crore people do not have Ration Cards. In the case of Migrant workers, their Ration Cards may not be with them or might not be valid in the place where they are stranded.

Make use of Perceived, Unperceived and Inferred analogies to analyse the situation with an open mindedness and generous heart, rather than hiding behind datas and reports.
Prioritise things, focus on people’s health over Economic health of the Country and Open the FCI godowns and give food to every needy. Procure the new crop and refill them.

He also said that only and only increase in Production will give happiness or economic well-being to the people…here Production refers to Manufacturing and Agricultural activities. In modern India supply chains also become inevitable part of the Production activities.

Let me summarise it:

Make people’s lives easy by giving them adequate food and necessary financial support…Lives are Safe
Kick start all the activities that increase our Domestic Production…Livelihoods are Secure.

The simplest answer to the trickiest question of the day was always available…but we were looking West.
Let us reconnect ourselves to our forgotten Rich Heritage of Cultural Values which taught us how to be more healthy and happy life in less resources.

Let us return to our old food habits of unprocessed organic essentials. Simplify our lives by reducing unnecessary clutter in our To do lists. Slow down a little, cherish the beauty of nature, love and warmth of your family. Lets make a new beginning with a clean slate.

Is India Ready for the Hunger Crisis ahead?

With Global Economic slowdown lot of Indexes have changed dramatically. One such Index was of World Hunger Index. In October 2019 India ranked 102nd among 107 countries in a report prepared by Welthungerhilfe and Concern Worldwide.

In the wake of Covis19 Pandemic, many National Social Scientists and Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations are warning the world against the Hunger Crisis ahead, which can further worsen and result in a severe Famine.

Famine is basically a result of Draught..but its not always attributed to lack of rains or drop in crop yields.

Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen has classified Famine into two Categories:

1. Decline Availability of Food

Uneven distribution of the available food due to…supply chain failure, failure in storage or even illegal hoarding, result in decline in availability of food to some part of the population. This creates an artificial Famine, but with real hungry people.

Thanks to the Green Revolution, under the bold leadership of Smt Indira Gandhi, India is Self Sufficient in food and many sectors of Agriculture.

Food Corporation of India’s godowns are having 7.7 lakh tons of food grains as on date. By the grace of God and handwork of our Farmers this year also India has harvested bumper crops.


2. Failure of Exchange Entitlement

Not every one is a Farmer, majority of the population depends on buying food. National Sample Survey says that 60% of per capita income is spent on buying Food.
In a condition like lockdown or any other natural calamity, food becomes very expensive. The rich and upper middle classes some how spend extra money and buy what they need. But the poor and lower middle class people, who generally live on day to day basis fail to buy food due to lack of money.

India may not witness acute famine like in many third world countries, but we cannot rule out the possibility of millions of Indians living on one meal or no meal.

Then why are we talking of Hunger Crisis?

With Mountains of food grains we also have Mounting of Hunger.

United Nation’s World Food Program says that 22.2 Million Indians have not eaten sufficient food in the past three months…which happens to be the highest in the world.

In Modern India agriculture and other associated sectors have slowly disappeared from the Urban areas. Thanks to the supply chain system everything is available in almost every part of the country.

But with lockdown in the country, man and material movement has been restricted and the supply chains are more or less failing.
This has resulted in Decline in Availability inspite of bumper crops  everywhere. Greedy people will not hesitate in creating a Trade Induced Scarcity and mint money.

As I said those who can afford will survive the crisis and indulge in panic buying, because we do not have market regulatory system in place.

On the other hand the poor will be hit badly due to failure of exchange entitlement or purchasing power.
Lock down has laid off over 14 crore workers and they are not in a position to buy even essentials.

What should the Govt do?

1. Regulate the Supply and Demand by eliminating middlemen commissions. Even in places ,where the Covid Relief material is being distributed, middlemen are seen fleecing the needy.

2. Create income source or monetise the poor by direct cash transfers and increase their purchasing power. In other words safe guard them from failure of exchange entitlement.

3. Improvise the Public distribution system or the Civil Supplies…only substandard rice or wheat will not be enough.
Include all the possible essentials like pulses, oil, milk, tea, sugar, soya chunks, vegetables like onion, potatoes, tamarind, salt, spices etc.

4. Ensure 10Kg Rice, 1Kg Dal, 1Kg Sugar, 1/2 ltr of oil per adult, per month should be given to the needy with or without Ration Card. Milk for the children and other necessary essentials at subsidised prices.

5. Restrengthen the Supply chains to ensure timely availability of the essentials to everyone.

Hunger and Malnutrition or HUNGaMA report says that 42% children below the age of 5yrs are malnourished or under nourished. Malnutrition is a result of Hunger, this intern has many physical and mental health ailments attached to it.

Today’s hunger is definitely going to influence the standards of life tomorrow.

That is why it is very important for the Govt to ensure people are eating a decent meal and not wash their hands off with emotional pep talks and elaborate guidelines on what to eat in order to increase the natural immunity.

Instead of allowing the food grains to rot in the godowns, be generous in feeding the hunger.....

Thankfully India can very well feed its population and still have enough and more stock for future use.

Should the Lockdown Continue?

In the words of Rahul Gandhi, Lockdown in a Pandemic like Covid19 is a pause button, to temporarily arrest its spread, but is not going to kill or eradicate it.
It can only buy us some time to prepare ourselves to fight it and many State Govts have really done a commendable job. Billion thanks to our Front line heroes and the State Chief Ministers.

Almost 40 days since the Janata Curfew, India has been under complete lockdown for 37 days now…137 crore population is eagerly awaiting the Govt’s next decision on the Lockdown.

The Principle of Binary is mostly dicey…

Unfortunately we have only two possible options: Lift or Extend the lockdown

If we lift up the Lockdown, chances of sudden surge in the number of cases will choke the entire system.
If we extend the Lockdown, a large population will be forced to sleep hungry or cut on their basic necessities.

Had there been a way to assure us that by extending the Lockdown for another 30 or 40 days, the Pandemic will die its natural death…India will be more than willing to cooperate for another phase of lockdown extension. Unfortunately there’s no such principle or theory to support the argument.

Lockdown may not really effect many, but will be life and death issue and for some it might escalate their health issues. Unemployment rate is reaching almost 25%, threat of hunger deaths is rising with every passing day.


14 Crore Migrant workers & daily wagers have lost their livelihood.
11 Crore people employed by 6.3 crore MSMEs have not gone to work for over a month now, which translates into loss of pay or even lay off as the entire sector is under Extreme Liquidity Shock.
Economy has come to a stand still and we cannot rule out job cuts in other sectors like the IT, Telecom, Hospitality etc. March salaries are yet to be credited, April salaries will be nothing less than a Bonus even with a 25% reduction, as their bills are mounting.


But still it is not advisable to lift the lockdown completely and expose the entire population to the Pandemic, because our Health care system is not equipped to handle a larger magnitude of the outbreak.

Hence it is wiser to think wisely and practically and carve a middle path by planning a Staggered or Graded Lockdown Exit.

What is the Magnitude of Covid19 in India?

As per ICMR guidelines India is Testing only those with severe symptoms, but we are not testing people with no symptoms or even those with mild symptoms.


Dr. Jay Prakash, a renowned Epidemiologist, has given his opinion based on the pattern reported so far. There are 60% positive cases who have not shown any symptoms of influenza or Covid19. Which means the ratio of tested +ve samples Vs untested +ve samples is 1: 60, this directly says that India is not testing enough samples.


By underplaying the Epidemic, Govt is trying to hide its unpreparedness for so many days. Let us not forget the PPE procurement was reported to be faulty so was the Rapid Testing Kits procurement.

Owing to the lack of preparedness of our Govt and the possible Cure or Vaccine for the Disease, India cannot choose to opt for “Herd Immunity” principle.

Herd Immunity is a method under which at least 40% of the population is exposed to the Viral Infection at various levels of intensity…by virtue of which their auto immune system becomes active and starts producing Anti Bodies against the Viral Antigen, like it happened in the case of Swine Flue. Probably this also could be one of the reasons behind our resistance against Covid19.

But there’s a catch to this method….between the exposure to the infection to the production of antibodies and the recovery there’s a considerable time span, could be up to 4 weeks or more, during which the individual requires medical help to hospitalisation. But we are not having enough hospital beds or isolation wards to accommodate huge number of patients. Boris Johnson has taught us what not to do.

As per the data Mortality rate of Covid19 in India is little above 3% of which elderly people are more. So we have a duty to safeguard our older generation, next generation and those with comorbidity or people with multiple conditions co-occurring with a primary condition.

What is the immediate Requirement?

Test, Identify and Isolate

By now State Govts have identified the Red, Orange and Green Zones in their respective states. Containment and monitoring of these zones with a Dynamic approach because today’s Red zone may become Orange zone tomorrow and vis a versa. And the only way this can be identified is by continuous monitoring and aggressive testing.
Testing can be done by random or pooled samples methods in the Red and Orange Zones in particular.

Red Zones must be strictly contained from mingling with Orange or Green Zones.
Same thing applies to the other two zones also.

Can Economic Activities Resume?

Central Govt may have the luxury of time and might be finding it more convenient to extend the Lockdown, with some emotional pep talk.

But Central Govt has the duty of extending Financial Assistance to the State Govts and the MSMEs by announcing:

• Wage protection assistance
• Credit guarantee fund

Economic activities in the Green Zones must be allowed to resume. Sectors which are essential for the people need to spring back to action and the supporting linked activities also must be allowed to resume. A scientific approach is required to identify and prioritise the activities which can be allowed to restart, with a reduced workforce…increase the number of shifts instead.
Work from Home must continue for some more time.

This will have double benefit:

• Our Economy we start rolling.
• The process of Herd Immunity will begin some where.

The decision should be left to State Govt’s jurisdiction, with a strict surveillance by the Central Govt.

Crowds must be avoided in public places, Cinema, Shopping Malls, Hotels, Travel etc can wait.

Collectively with a Scientific and Practical approach India will definitely win the Covid19 war.

Modi ‘Waive’

Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi calls himself a Chaiwala, son of a poor mother.
But does this make him pro poor or anti poor PM?

He came to power with the help of his Crony friends who spent lot of money on his Election Campaign and contributed considerably to BJP through Electoral Bonds. Today BJP is the richest party in India.

Modi is indebted to his Crony friends and has gone out in every possible way to help them in everything they put their finger on…because he’s so addicted to his publicity and lifestyle.

He has not only promoted Crony Capitalism but also killed many prestigious PSUs only to keep his friends happy. He has repaid his favours to his cronies by writing off their loans worth lakhs of crores.

In 5 and a half years of his Govt, PM Modi has waived off (Written Off) ₹6.66 lakh crores.
Total Write Offs from 2014-15 to Sep 2019, Bank loans of wilful defaulters of over and above ₹100 crores was ₹5.1 lakh crores.

Year wise break up is as follows:

2014-15 :    40,800 Crores
2015-16 :    29,178 Crores
2016-17 :    57,821 Crores
2017-18 :    89,400 Crores
2018-19 : 2,12,000 Crores
2019-20 :    80,893 Crores (till Sep 2019)
__________________________
Total    :   ₹5,10,092 Crores
__________________________

Add the ₹68,607 crores write off revealed through the latest RTI list, the total adds up to
₹6.66 Lakh Crores. Remaining ₹87,300 crores are of the loans written off below ₹100 crores.

To add to this whopping Modi Waive, there has been a tremendous increase in the number of Banking Frauds during the last 5.5 years.
For a Record the number of Frauds registered were 32,868 in which a total amount of ₹2,17,513 crores were whacked away.

But sources say that the Dormant Accounts were cleaned up with the help of expert Hackers…and it was done with the knowledge of the Bankers and Govt, the booty was delivered in different parts of the world.

India Braves all Odds

State Govts are yet to receive any Covid package or a confirmed assurance. Their own dues are still awaited from the Central Govt. no guidelines given on increasing the limit from 3% to at least 4.5% under Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) or allowing them to Monetise Fiscal Deficit. Lockdown and Prohibition on Alcohol have made State Treasuries almost dry.

MSMEs have not received any Revival Plan. 6.5 Crore units which employ 11 crore people are helplessly staring at Lock outs. Not a word of assurance from the Govt.

Farmers are struggling with the Harvest. No financial help or relaxation in the parameters of procurement of the crop on a better MSP.

Govt Employees’ Dearness Allowances have been rolled back, apart from the pay cuts and mandatory contribution to PM Care.

Pensioners including the Ex Servicemen will not receive their DA for over a year. How can a Govt be so cruel to its Soldiers who dedicated their lives for the country? Old veterans have to foot their medical bills.
Migrant workers are stranded in different states with no help from the Govt. They are not having any shelter to live and are not receiving food to stay alive. Local people are helping where ever possible, but Govt is mute.

Front Line Heroes are fighting multiple battle…Lack of Safety Gears, Lack of infrastructure and their personal problems. Testing Kits procurement has become the biggest international joke of India.

Private Employees are losing their jobs, those working from home are working 7 days a week with reduced pay cheques and March Salaries still to be credited. No job protection or credit assurance from the Govt.


What is Modi Govt doing?

Modi Govt is always hungry for money.
So seeking as much as $6 billion of loans from multilateral institutions such as Asian Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Bank.
World Bank has already sanctioned $1 billion.

I will write on how External Borrowing or borrowing in USD becomes very dear with volatility of INR by the time we repay it.

Enhanced its borrowing from the RBI which was limited to ₹75,000 crores only, but Modi govt had enhanced it to ₹1,20,000 crores on 1st April 2020…it wasn’t enough so they further increased it to ₹2,00,000 crores on 20th April 2020.

If we see how much money Modi govt has taken from the RBI

2014-15:    65,869 Crores
2015-16:    30,669 Crores
2016-17:    58,000 Crores
2017-18:    63,000 Crores (50,000 Surplus + 13,000 extra)
2018-19: 1,76,000 Crores (52,637 Surplus + 1,23,336 extra)

2019-2020: 2,00,000 Crores (not aware of if this includes 69,000 dividend)
_______________________
 Total:  5,93,538 Crores
_______________________


Interestingly PM Modi is very busy filling up his PM Cares fund by hook or by crook in the name of Covid 19.

Where is my money going is the question on every Taxpayer’s mind because if the banks and the Reserve Bank are eroding their reserves by writing off so many lakhs of crores, the burden will directly or indirectly fall on our shoulders in the form of additional Taxes or Cess….we know Finance Minister is very efficient in shutting people up.

The “Modi Wave” which transformed into “Modi Waive”  to ruin even the RBI!!

Test more to Resume India

The first Positive case of Covid-19 was Reported on the 30th January 2020, and the Janata Curfew was observed on the 22nd March. On the 23rd March the total number of cases were 271 and 15,000 samples tested. The first Lockdown of 21 days was announced on the 23rd March followed by an extension till 3rd May 2020.

Today after 89 days from the day first case was Reported, lets see what do the figures say:

• Total Confirmed Cases: 28,380
• Recovered Cases: 6,361
• Deaths: 886

Very impressive Covid (Data) Management

Now comes the tricky part:

From 28th January to 26th April 2020 total samples Tested were 5,80,000 only, with an average of 6444.4 samples per day…for a population of 137 crores!!

Report says that the Labs roped in for Covid Testing have the capacity of Testing 1,00,000 samples per day, but Govt is comfortable with 39,000 sample per day…why?

Why is Govt not willing to Test More?


While the World Health Organisation is recommending rapid Testing of samples, Indian Govt doesn’t seem to worry at all.

Best part is that the Testing Kits imported from China turn out to be faulty, Sate Govts are labelled anti National for raising the issue.

As if everything was going perfectly, today we learnt that GoI paid a whopping 145% higher price for the Imported Kits.

Let’s not forget same thing was Reported about the PPEs also...”not to the required standards.”

Forget the Chinese substandard goods but what happened to the claims of Rapid Testing Kits made in UP?

A report on 25th April says, that in a meeting GoM decided to stall the use of Rapid Testing Kits, because “as a result of taking so many precautions, situation in India is under control”….very good if its under control.

Then why import Testing Kits at 145% higher price? Is the GoI trying to make some quick money on this?
Or is there something more to what meets the eye?
Grapevine says the Rapid Testing Kits prompted GoI to do some mix and match, Procure Chinese kits with over invoicing and add the Domestic product to the lot and export money abroad.
Grapevine also tells that there was a raid on some godown….shhhhh.
Was PPEs also similar set up?

Good that GoI cancelled orders of 2 Chinese firms…but how will India Test?

Chief Ministers of some States are not ready for relaxation of Lockdown, do they fear sudden surge in cases?…then why is India not Testing enough?

Is he underplaying for something bigger like the Nobel Prize?

PM Narendra Modi is not willing to discuss anything with the Opposition, we can understand that, but he’s not passing on correct information to the people either.

A pandemic cannot be defeated without people’s cooperation, for that transparency is the primary requirement. Unless people are aware how will they support the Govt in its plan to fight this Virus?

It will not end here, even for Resuming normal activities, people of India will have to play a vital role.

I hope Modi Govt understands the gravity of the situation and increases the sample testing.

Let me hope against hope that Modi ji takes the Nation into confidence in this fight against Covid19 and India is back to its pink of Health.

Why PM CARES when we have PMNRF?

PMNRF or the Prime Minister National Relief Fund was formed in the year 1947 by Pt Jawahar Lal Nehru with the suggestion of Mr. J R D Tata, primarily to help Migrants from Pakistan.

These funds were meant to be spent under the directions of the Prime Minister for providing Relief to people in different situations.
For over 72 years PMNRF has been functional and has garnered the trust and acceptance of everyone.

Never in these 7 decades did we see the spending going more than the available balance. The account is active and functioning in the desired manner... I presume. Gross balance as on 31st March 2020 is around ₹3800 Crores.

If everything was perfect and clean, then what was the need to form Prime Minister Citizens Assistant and Response in Emergency Situation (PM CARES) Funds with basically similar objectives?
Prime Minister has not clarified and his Cabinet talks everything but will never reply to the questions asked.

Is it exclusive for COVID19 pandemic? The answer is no, PM Cares will continue to exist in future as well.

Similarities between PMNRF & PM CARES

1. Headed by Prime Minister and the nominated Trustees.
2. Primary function is to provide relief to the people in distress.
3. Donations are exempted from Income Tax.
4. Eligible for exemptions under CSR Funds.

 Differences between PMNRF & PM CARES

1. PM Cares is basically an NGO in its organisational structure.
2. Charitable Trusts are not bond to follow strict Audits.
3. Lacks transparency.
4. Lacks answerability.

Possible theories floating around

PMNRF was started by Pandit Nehru and Modi does not like him.
A part of building Brand Modi agenda for future political gains.

Unfortunately this not the complete truth.

Since 2014 after Modi Govt came to power, a lot of things started changing dramatically more so in the transparency of the Govt spending.

Modi is anything but not benevolent…we are aware that 250 crore rupees are still lying unspent while the families of Pulwama victims are yet to receive monetary compensation.

What Exactly are we missing?

Till the FY 2015-16 the PMNRF was managed in a very transparent manner with CAG auditing it and the report being published on the official website.

The audited balance sheet of PMNRF from the year 2009 to 2019 is available on the official website.

Till the FY 2013-14 the PMNRF was managed in a very transparent manner with CAG auditing it and the report being published on the official website.

Then why am I writing this article?

Till the year 2015-16 Modi followed the rules. But from 2016-17 he got to his dirty work of implementing Gujarat Model, unfortunately that was the year of Demonetisation also.

What happened in the PMNRF was really shocking, he not only reduced spending the funds for Relief Measures but also started doing things which never happened before.

In the year 2016-17 a total amount of ₹2750 crores was invested in Tier-II Bonds & FDs.

Tier-II bonds are sort of unofficial bonds which promise to give better returns with higher risk and the Banks do not mention them in their books. So they cannot be traced unless PMO gives the details.


In the year 2017-18 the invested 1000 crores Bonds of the total 2750 crores, were either sold off or given away, there’s no mention of the details in the balance sheet, while it shows 1750 crores still invested in Tier-II Bonds.

In the year 2018-19 opening balance shows 1750 crores in Tier-II Bonds, but in the closing balance it has become zero, how and where was it spent is not listed.

One more interesting point is that in 2017-18 he gave 1300 crore loans to the States from PMNRF.

His spending on the Relief Activities has been shamefully low.

Questions which we need answers for are:

• Why did PM choose to invest Relief Fund in Tier-II bonds which give higher interest but are highly risky?

• What happened to the 2750 crore rupees? Were they spent away or given away to some one?

• How can Central Govt give loans from the PMNRF?

• Why was PMNRF not audited by the CAG?

• Why was SARC Associates given the responsibility to audit the PMNRF?

• What is that Modi is trying to hide from the country?

• Is this the reason why PM Cares was formed with minimum transparency?

• Why is HRD Minister routing mandatory voluntary donations of employees into PM Cares and diluting the existence of PMNRF?

• Is the PM Cares Fund synonymous to Bihar West Bengal Election Funds?

There’s one page website, no idea if SARC associates will be the privileged auditors, not under RTI Act…what’s cooking?

Is India still a Democracy?

I have asked the questions but every one knows we will not get any answers.

Is Modi Govt Doing Enough to help India Fight Covid-19?

Exactly after one month since the first Janata Curfew was imposed, followed by total Lockdown 1.0 and the continuing Lockdown 2.0, the Strategy of Modi Govt has become more than clear.

Central Govt has very carefully excused itself from taking the lead role or even extending required financial or material help to the States.

Our Covid-19 Heros are:

• State Govts
• Govt Employees direct and indirect
• Medical Staff
• Police Force
• Cleaning Staff
• Supply Chains
• NGOs
• Social Workers

State Govts are working day and night and ensuring essential commodities, monetary help, food for the migrant workers etc. are reaching the needy people with maximum efficiency.
They are also shouldering that the responsibility of successful and peaceful Lock down.

State CMs are fighting many battles at a time…

• Financial Crisis
• Sourcing Testing Kits
• Sourcing PPEs and disposables
• Quarantine to Isolation
• Maintaining Essential Services
• Finding ways to contain the spread
• Most importantly maintaining an overall positive atmosphere

Keeping people healthy both medically and emotionally is more challenging than fighting a war…must appreciate each and every individual contributing towards the better tomorrow.

Now let’s see what has Modi Govt done for the States!!

Allowed 17,289 Crores to be utilised from the State Disaster Response Funds of 28,983 Crores, still holding over 11,500 Crores.

When GST was implemented States had asked for GST Compensation in should the State income reduce, for which a GST Cess was levied on us and over 53,000 Crores are lying in the consolidated funds. Two month’s GST compensation dues are still pending to the States from the Central Govt.

Under National Health Mission the normal allocation has been released, there’s nothing from the Centre to fight Corona Pandemic.

Modi ji made us all Clap, Bang Utensils.
Gave emotional speeches.
Worked on his PR
Made us light Diyas, Candles.
Gave 500/- to some distinguished Jandhan account holders for PR.

During the meeting with the Prime Minister, all the State Chief Ministers requested him to extend Financial help, because Sates cannot fight this pandemic without active support from the Central Govt.





What are the bottlenecks for State Govts?

Post GST States have lost their rights to levy additional taxes.

Their primary sources of income are Petroleum, Alcohol, Motor Vehicles, Land Registrations etc.

Due to lockdown there are no Registrations, no Alcohol sales and very negligible Petroleum products  consumption.

GST dues from the Centre also don’t come in time. Other dues under various heads are also not being cleared by the Centre.


States are not allowed to borrow more than 3% of their GST revenue under Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management FRBM.

States are not having the powers to Monetise the Fiscal Deficit, which means they cannot ask RBI to print Currency equivalent to the Fiscal Deficit.

States do not have additional income sources like the Customs Duty, Direct Taxes, Corporate taxes.

They also do not have the facilities to access surplus fund or reserves from the RBI


What should the Central Govt do to help the States in this difficult deficit times?

Allow the State’s to borrow upto 5% of GST revenue.
Increase the borrowing limits and extend loans at very low rate of Interest if not zero% from the RBI.
Create Covid19 Grants to the States.

Central Govt will be quick in saying where is the money?

Well we have the answer to that also

Due to low Crude prices in the international market Modi Govt made 3.5 lakh crores only in 2019-20 and the total revenue since 2014 is 20 lakh crores. Which govt has not told us where was it spent.

Collection of different types of Cess has over 3.6 lakh crores lying in the consolidated funds.

Modi Govt is receiving International Covid-19 Donations and Grants which are being carefully routed into PM Care funds..

Through CSR exemptions only on donations to PM Care Funds, he has ensured non of the Corporate houses in India donate to CM Relief Fund.


Will Modi Govt take the lead role in this fight against pandemic or will it be busy buying MLAs and toppling Govts?

Let’s wait and watch!!

Is only Corona Responsible for Economic Crisis in India?

World leaders have acknowledged that Dr Manmohan Singh steered India through 2 Major Slow Downs. Yet he made Indian Economy world’s third largest and fastest growing Economy.

When he handed over PMO to Narendra Modi India was a Robust Economy with its wheels well oiled and galloping gloriously.

Then came the 8PM of November 2016 when Modi appeared on our Television Screens and declared Demonetisation. Indian Economy came to a screeching halt all of a sudden. But he didn’t stop there he celebrated the midnight “Independence Day” and launched flawed GST.

Indian Economy could not recover after that because Modi Govt is clueless about what needs to be done to correct the path of our Development. They don’t have a plan and are too egoistic to take suggestions from the experienced and knowledgeable.

Lets do a case study on the Revenue esteems of 2019-20 to understand what was the magnitude of Economic Crisis before Covid19 was first identified in Wuhan.

GTR or Gross Tax Revenue drops by 15% highest in 20 yrs

Budget Estimates for the year 2019-20 are estimated to dip by a whopping 3.5 lakh crores.

In this the dip in Direct Tax revenue alone will be 1.8 lakh crores.

Out of which 1.05 lakh crores will be on State Revenue, 2.45 lakh crores will be for Central Revenue alone.

For Past 5-6 yrs Centre has been strategically increasing Surcharge and Cess, the Revenue generated through these is not shared with the States.

In other words we can say that the joint collection of Revenue ( Centre and States) has been nose diving while the exclusive revenue for the Centre has been on the rise.

Govt has always rubbished Economic Slow Down.

Then why this drastic dip in GTR?

In the reduced Revenue, Govt Expenditure will also reduce…which will directly impact Demand.

Govt is clueless on how to create the demand.

                               

Lets see the Reasons behind the decline:

1. At 4.5% GDP, its the Lowest Economic Growth ever in the history of India…we know this number is with the new magical method.

2. When the Growth Rate is the lowest, instead of creating a demand by increasing the Govt Expenditure, Modi Govt chose to give Tax rebates of upto 1.45lakh crores, to Corporates and ensured their profits don’t decrease. Today India’s Corporate Taxes are at par with American Taxes, but Is India anywhere close to the size of the American Economy?

3. GST collections have not met the targets, reason is Tax Evasion continues.

4. Due to Loksabha and State Elections Govts have worked on reducing GST slabs on many commodities.

5. Import Duty Revenue also declined due to reduced consumption, Oil is highest imported commodity, unfortunately the crude prices have fallen so has the consumption.

6. To paint a ‘All is Well” picture Modi Govt has fudged figures to show better GDP % (Subhash Garg has written in his blog) unrealistic assumptions.


Is it wise to say that Corona killed Indian Economy?

Won’t it be factually correct if we say Corona disconnected the ventilator of the critically ill Indian Economy?

This financial year India will create history with 1.6% GDP if not Zero....I must add Modi hai to mumkin hai.

Understanding Economic Crisis

Understanding Economic Crisis

Reserve Bank of India announced series of measures to combat Economic Crisis.

What are those Liquidity Boosting Measures?

1. Reduced Reverse Repo Rate from 4 to 3.75 points
2. Reduced Liquidity coverage Ratio
3. Allocated 50,000 crore Rupees to NBFCS like NABARD, SIDBI and MFIs (Micro Financing Institutions) to enhance availability of Liquidity to MSMEs because 30% Domestic Product comes from MSMEs.

For common people to understand these measures they must know some basic:

• Liquidity: Cash in hand or money available to spend.
• Repo Rate: Interest paid by the Banks to RBI on money borrowed from RBI.
• Reverse Repo Rate: Interest paid by RBI to the Banks on the funds parked with RBI.

Reduced Reverse Repo Rate from 4 to 3.75 points 

Every Bank or NBFC has FDs, unclaimed or surplus idle funds which they try to put to generate some interest by parking them with RBI….an estimate says a whopping 7 Lakh crore rupees of funds of different banks are parked with RBI, which were generating 4% interest till 17th April 2020.

Now that RBI has reduced the Reverse Repo Rate to 3.75%, banks will definitely think on reducing the parkings in RBI, because Banks pay us 5-8% on FDs and 3-4% on Savings.

This will increase the Liquidity of the Banks.

Reduced Liquidity coverage Ratio

Every Banking Institution is required to keep some % of its money in the form of ready available cash or High Quality Liquid assets like lending to Govt or PSUs for very short term. By reducing this Liquidity Coverage Ratio RBI has directly helped in increasing the Liquidity with the Banks.


This is not Financial Crisis

In an ideal condition this theory of Liquidity Boosting would have helped Industries and Businesses to avail more liquidity from the banks and increase their business activities. This in turn would have boosted our Economy and generated more Jobs.
In other words these measures are good in a Financial Crisis.

This is Economic Crisis

Why is this an Economic Crisis?
RBI fails to understand why are the Banks parking 7 Lakh crore rupees for just 4% rate of interest?
RBI thinks Banks are not wiping to take risk by lending the money and generate higher rate of interest.

Who will tell them that it is because there’s no Demand….there  is no Consumption.
Even if the Banks increase credits, the borrowers are unable to generate business and service the interest to the Banks.

Result: Increasing number of NPAs or Non Performing Assets.


Post Demonetisation and ill implemented GST, many businesses have taken dual near fatal blows, and many people have lost their existing source of income, to add to the crisis Govt has failed miserably in generating new Jobs. The Unemployment Ratio is all time high in 45yrs.

Govt has not thought of measures to Remonetize people, all they understand is to keep the Corporates cushioned by reducing the Tax burdens on them.

Today with the “ Chakka Jaam” situation due to Covid-19, can the Boost in Liquidity in Banks help in Boosting the Demand?
Absolutely no!!!

Reason: Demand can be created only by Boosting the Consumption.


What will Cheaper Bank Credit do?

With very low demand many people are finding it very difficult to service the interest for the existing borrowings, they will queue up for the cheaper or advances with lower rate of interest and  repay their old loans which were taken on higher rates of interest. But will not expand business activities.
In short Boosting Liquidity in Banks and extending it to the existing clients will actually not yield the desired results in the absence of Consumption.


How can we Boost Consumption?

Post DeMo people have gradually eroded their Savings as most of them lost their regular source of income due to Job losses or losses in business.

As a result the masses, the employed class, the farmers, the daily wagers all fighting cash crunch or reduced spending capacity.

Unless Govt thinks of ReMonetising the common man Consumption cannot be boosted and Demand will never be increased, no hope for Exports in near future.


Is NYAY the only way ahead?

Rahul Gandhi had suggested Remonetisation of the 25% population of India by ensuring a monthly income of 7500/- per family, he reiterated on his idea and was kind enough to let Modi Govt to rename it but ensure its implementation.

The Consulting Committee of Indian National Congress has asked for an immediate direct money transfer of 7500/- to increase Consumption and create Demand.

To Fight Economic Crisis with methods of combating Financial Crisis is like Band Aid treatment for severe injury in Pawan Khera’s words.

Looking forward to better GDP and Employment.

This too shall pass but we have to work in the right direction.

Foreign Direct Investment or Chinese Indirect Intervention

Is India in the Grip of Dragon Claw?

Economic Liberalisation has made it necessary for every Govt to attract Foreign Direct Investments or FDIs. And the FDIs became an indication of Economic Growth and Development of the Country.

Previously FDIs permissions were controlled by the Govt.
Modi Govt eased the norm further to an automatic approval system for upto 100% FDI.
This resulted in Companies sourcing out Foreign Equities or borrowings and started paying off Domestic loans with higher rate of Interest.

This has its adverse effects as well...the exposure to foreign borrowings has not only increased considerably, but is becoming burdensome because Indian Rupee is all time weak.

In past five years of Modi Govt, India has recorded steep Economic Slowdown, which the Govt has been trying to window dress through Tax Rebates or Write offs etc.

After the Corona Pandemic hit India, Modi Govt got an excuse to blame lockdown for Economic collapse. But the fact remains that the GDP was the lowest at 4.5% as calculated in the new magical method, the growth rate predicted were as low as 2.5% also.

But lucky Modi got away this time also because of Corona, GDP will break it own lowest record and be 0% for 2020-21.

On the 12th of April Rahul Gandhi had Tweeted to the Govt requesting not to allow Foreign Investors to make use of this massive economic slow down to take control of any Indian Corporate.
He said this because the Indian Blue Chip companies are now very vulnerable to Foreign Take Overs as a result of FDIs liberalisation MNCs have captured 25% of our non Banking Stocks.

Stock Market is bleeding everyday and anyone can make use of this situation to buy considerable number of shares like how the 1.01% HDFC shares were bought by Central Bank of China.

This actually alarmed the Govt of India to think and make necessary amendments in the FDI norms under which the FDIs coming through Automatic Approval route especially from those countries which share their borders with Indian Sub Continent, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal, China and Afghanistan are subjected to mandatory scrutiny and approvals.

We all know that China is the only Potential threat for Corporate India. China has strategically increased its investments in Indian Corporates ever since Narendra Modi Govt came to power in 2014.

                 

The total investments from China since 2000 to 2019 are approximately only 0.5%, out of which only $1.6 Billion were invested till 2014, post 2014 their investments have increased by 500% to $8 Billion . Only in the most popular Start ups like Swiggy, Zomato, Ola, Big Basket, FlipKart etc they have invested around $4 Billion.

As per a report of Investment Bank of China, 42% investment is in Manufacturing Sector, 25% in the Infra Structure, rest are in Telecom, Energy, IT, Pharma etc.

Fosun Pharma has already acquired 74% stake in Gland Pharma, as China is aggressively investing in Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients API.

The new amended FDI norms may curb direct Investments from China, but can they plug indirect investments routed through Singapore, Malaysia or any other country??

Only time will tell us, because China is cash rich and Modi Govt has been very liberal in allowing Chinese products to capture our markets. He also kept quiet while China captured considerable part of Doklam.

The CM Narendra Modi was attacking Dr. Manmohan Singh’s Govt on Chinese intervention, but ironically PM Narendra Modi has opened his doors wide open for China.

Jhoola Huglopmacy to uninvited unofficial meeting with Chinese President only indicate that Modi is following Xi Jinping’s guidelines.

Because I remember before 2019 General Elections Amit Shah had said I quote “If BJP wins this Elections, BJP will be in power for next 50 years”.

I say this because India has lost its Democracy and Fundamental Rights of the people have been hijacked.

It is even more important now for India to uproot this proxy Dragon ASAP.

Revival of MSMEs

Reviving India

But where is the money?

MSMEs are the life line of India Inc. As per reports there are about 6.5 crore MSMEs in India & approx 11 crore people are directly employed by them apart from the indirect employment.

It is very important for the revival of India that these MSMEs are infused with new life.

How do we do this? By creating a stimulus corpus.

Central Govt has been finding innovative ways to impose different types of Taxes and Cess such as

• Education Cess
• Swatch Bharat Cess
• Oil Industry Development Cess
• Krishi Kalyan Cess

As per Finance Commission Recommendations Centre is bound to share the Tax revenue to the States for eg 14th Finance Commission has recommended 42% revenue sharing.

But the Revenue generated through Cess is exclusively for Central Govt to spend, but they have to be spent only for that specific purpose for which it was collected from the people.

All these funds get accumulated in the consolidated fund of India, but cannot be utilised for anything other than its specific purpose.

Between 2015-2020 a whopping 3.59 lakh crores are lying unutilised.

In the FY 2019-20 alone 2.76 lakh crores were collected through different types of Cess and Surcharge.

In the FY 2020-21 the estimate was of 3.16 lakh crores, but corona ruined the game.

When questioned why isn’t govt spending that money…Govt says there’s no need to spend more than that.
If that is the case why don’t they reduce the burden on the people? Govt has no answer

The percentage of Cess collected by the government spent for the specific purpose is very marginal as if everything has been accomplished.
For eg

• Primary Edu Cess: 20% spent
• Oil Industry Development Cess: 1% / 900 crores spent
• Infra Structure Development Cess: 7% spent
• Research and Development Cess: 10%/ 800 crores spent
• Clean Energy Cess: 30% spent
• Swachh Bharat Cess: 30% spent
• Highest % of Cess spent is 72% (don’t know which head)

The unspent Cess under different head which need immediate infusion of funds have been neglected, while the collected funds are kept idle.
For eg

• Higher/Secondary Edu Cess: 94,000 crores unspent since 2006-07
• Oil Industry Development Cess: 1.80 lakh crores lying idle
• R& D Cess: 7,200 crores unspent
• GST Cess: 53,000 crores unspent

*Data as per CAG report

We have seen Modi govt withdraw 1.76 Lakh crores from the reserves of the Reserve Bank which no government in independent India has ever touched. Similarly they will try to siphon of these  unused funds also.

Before that its our duty to ensure they pass GO under Epidemic Act and utilise these funds exclusively for Revival of the MSMEs

Plan for Revival of MSMEs

Theories won’t work in this Pandemic Lockdown
Only and only practical approach will save us to fight back

1. Save the Industries First, most of them are sure to be flagged NPAs due to non payment of the Interest on CC limits or working capital or evenTerm loans.

2. Give them necessary liquidity or stimulus to breathe first by paying their immediate bills like rents, power (in SSIs its Slab not meter reading) so minimum bill is generated in any case, wages etc.

3. Once the Banks reopen in their full capacity write off these month’s interest etc.

4. Renew the limits both fund based and non fund based, wherever they are due with eased norms and lower Rates, as most of them will be either NPAs or underperforming and won’t be able to meet their targeted projections.

5. Create Demand by monetising the people and increasing Govt Expenditure.

6. Provide necessary support for Raw Material procurement, Logistics, storage and warehousing, cold storage for perishables.

7. Encourage industries that produce tools, spares, raw material, ancillaries and interconnect them through a virtual network.

8. As we don’t foresee much on the Exports, help them diversify and produce domestically consumable products.

9. There are lot of exemptions given to EoUs in Duty and Taxes, why not extend those facilities for our non EoUs and help reducing the cost of the end product.

10. Finally INR must be strengthened or banks should help them freeze the exchange rate for the importers.

I know that the Govt tricked us on the Employment figures by showing us the increase in PF contributions…but actually Govt was paying for the Employer and the Employee, why not do the same thing now to uplift the MSMEs?

As people are forced to Pay cuts and delayed payments, why not give tax holiday for all?

Just fix GST at 5% on all essential goods that attract over and above 5% GST and make those with 5% GST as Tax free.

Encourage Exports but not Imports.

Remember Indian Jugad can be our biggest asset now, interlink our interdependent industries or services to create business for all.

Help genuine Entrepreneurs to stay alive as they are the wealth creators of India apart from generating direct and indirect employment.

To save our MSMEs from biting the dust or taken over for peanuts...lending banks should become Stake holders, with an exit plan once the industry stabilises.